The start of 2025 has brought unprecedented challenges to North Queensland, with Townsville and surrounding regions experiencing what Premier David Crisafulli has termed a "once-in-a-century" flood event. As of February 11, twelve separate flood watches and warnings were active across Queensland, highlighting the extensive impact of this weather system.
Townsville has received a staggering 1,033mm of rain in just the first week of February - nearly equivalent to its annual rainfall. The impact is particularly severe in Ingham and surrounding communities, where the Herbert River threatens to exceed its 1967 record of 15.2 meters. Critical infrastructure has been significantly affected, with hundreds of roads cut off and a temporary bridge required by the ADF to maintain essential access.
The Herbert, Haughton, Cape, Upper and Lower Burdekin, and Flinders Rivers are experiencing major flooding, with river levels still rising. The Bruce Highway near Ayr is at risk of being cut off, while Ingham, one of the worst-hit towns, has seen a temporary bridge built by the Australian Defence Force to reconnect the community. Hundreds of roads remain impassable, stranding freight trucks and making the delivery of essential supplies a logistical challenge. While the region is seeing a brief reprieve from intense rainfall, heavy downpours could return within days.
This event shares remarkable similarities with the 2019 Townsville floods and the December 2023 Cairns and Daintree floods, pointing to a concerning pattern. The current flooding stems from a stationary tropical low weather system, characterised by prolonged heavy rainfall on its southeast flank. What makes this event particularly noteworthy is the system's tendency to stall - a phenomenon that appears to be occurring with increasing frequency.
The conditions fueling this disaster are not new. The extreme rainfall event of 2025 shares striking similarities with the Townsville floods of 2019 and the Cairns and Daintree floods of 2023. These events have been driven by slow-moving tropical lows that stall over the region, dumping vast amounts of rain over extended periods. Typically, tropical lows pass quickly, but recent years have seen an increasing number of these systems become stationary, resulting in extreme and prolonged rainfall.
The primary atmospheric factors include:
Atmospheric Warming: For every 1°C increase in temperature, the atmosphere holds 7% more water vapour, with recent research suggesting even higher percentages for short-duration rainfall events.
Ocean Temperature Anomalies: The northwest Coral Sea is currently experiencing temperatures 1-2°C above average, contributing to an intensifying marine heatwave.
Monsoon Patterns: This year has seen the latest-recorded arrival of the Australian monsoon, leading to reduced cloud cover and elevated ocean temperatures, creating conditions conducive to extreme rainfall events.
The immediate forecast offers little relief. The Bureau of Meteorology warns of continued heavy rainfall extending toward Cape York and the Gulf Country, with potential six-hourly rainfall totals between 120-180mm and isolated 24-hour totals up to 250mm. The saturation of river catchments means that additional rainfall will lead to increased runoff and river engorgement.
Accumulated precipitation for NE Queensland for the next 42hrs rainfall, via Metcentre by Weatherwatch
Data from EWN's Climatics platform reveals a trend in North Queensland's precipitation patterns. The region has experienced an upward trajectory in extreme precipitation events, with analysis showing an increase of up to 1.68 events per year over the past decade. This quantifiable increase aligns with climate scientists' projections and carries significant implications for regional planning and risk management.
The cumulative effect of more frequent extreme events creates compounding challenges:
The increasing frequency and intensity of these events necessitate a fundamental shift in regional planning approaches:
As these extreme weather events become more frequent, EWN continues to provide critical support to organisations managing flood risks and responses across North Queensland. Our multi-layered approach combines immediate operational support with long-term strategic planning capabilities:
We deliver precision-targeted flood alerts to stakeholders across the emergency management spectrum, from first responders to local governments and essential service providers.
Customised forecasting and event tracking is available through our GIS platform, allowing users to view weather events in real time and assess risk to assets. By combining meteorological expertise with detailed local knowledge, we provide stakeholders with the insights needed to make informed decisions about resource deployment and risk mitigation strategies.
Our partnership with Tomorrow.io enhances our ability to support the transport and logistics sector during extreme weather events with route-specific weather hazard alerts, real-time updates and advanced warning of weather conditions which could impact freight movements.
Through our Climatics platform, we're helping organisations understand the broader patterns and implications of flood events. This is particularly valuable for planning future developments and upgrades, developing climate adaptation strategies and updating disaster response protocols.
As extreme weather events continue to challenge communities, industries, and governments, proactive strategies are more important than ever. Northern Queensland's current crisis highlights the urgent need for data-driven decision-making and resilience planning to mitigate future risks. EWN remains committed to supporting businesses and emergency services with cutting-edge weather intelligence to help navigate and adapt to these evolving climate realities.