Tropical Cyclone Alfred has now turned towards land, intensifying as it approaches the southeast Queensland coastline. Currently a Category 2 system, Alfred is located 345km east of Brisbane and 315km east of the Gold Coast, moving westward. Forecasts indicate the cyclone will maintain Category 2 intensity as it nears landfall, which is expected to occur early Friday morning between Maroochydore and Coolangatta.
Alfred’s track has been closely monitored across the industry over the past week, with models initially showing a more uncertain trajectory. However, recent observations confirm that Alfred is responding to favorable ocean temperatures and reduced wind shear, supporting its intensification as it moves closer to the Queensland coast.
Cyclone Alfred approaching Australia's East Coast at 2pm, Wednesday 5 March 2025 (image via EWN's GIS Platform)
Expected Landfall and Impact
As Alfred makes its final approach, the system is expected to bring widespread severe weather across southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales. Key impacts include:
Damaging Winds & Coastal Hazards
- Gales with wind gusts up to 120 km/h are expected to develop along the coast from later today, persisting into Thursday and Friday.
- Destructive wind gusts up to 155 km/h are possible near and south of the cyclone’s track, potentially extending as far as Cape Byron by Thursday afternoon.
- Dangerous storm tides and coastal flooding are likely, particularly if Alfred’s landfall coincides with high tide on Friday morning. Low-lying coastal areas could experience significant inundation.
Large swells had already begun on the Gold Coast on Monday, as pictured by EWN's Ken Kato
Heavy Rainfall & Flooding Risk
- Heavy to locally intense rainfall is expected across southeast Queensland and northeast NSW from Thursday.
- Flash flooding is a major concern, with life-threatening flood risks possible near and south of Alfred’s centre.
- A Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watch remain in effect for the region.
At Early Warning Network, we are working around the clock to assist insurance providers, emergency services, utilities, and businesses in managing the severe weather risks posed by Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
Insurance Support
- Our EmbargoPlus system is actively assisting insurance providers in updating embargoed areas in real time.
- We are ensuring accurate and rapid adjustments to embargo zones, helping insurers manage policy restrictions effectively.
- With the expected rise in claims, we are supporting insurers in risk assessment and underwriting adjustments.
2. Real-Time Tracking & Forecasting
- Using cutting-edge weather models, our team is providing live updates on Alfred’s track, intensity, and potential impacts.
- Businesses and emergency services rely on our forecasts to make informed decisions, helping mitigate operational disruptions.
3. Post-Event Reporting
- Once Alfred has passed, our post-event analysis will assist insurance companies and industries in verifying claims and assessing damages.
- Our team provides detailed reports on affected areas, rainfall accumulation, wind damage, and flood impact, ensuring faster, more efficient response efforts.
Industries We Are Assisting
Our severe weather intelligence is supporting a wide range of industries, including:
- Insurance: Policyholder risk assessment, embargo enforcement, claims verification.
- Emergency Services: Real-time weather alerts for disaster management.
- Utilities & Infrastructure: Power grid risk forecasting and emergency planning.
- Mining & Resources: Severe weather alerts for site evacuations and safety protocols.
- Logistics & Transport: Impact assessments for road, rail, and port operations.
- Renewable Energy: Hail, wind, and flood tracking for solar and wind farms.
TC Watch areas as at 2pm, Wednesday 5 March 2025 (image via EWN's GIS Platform)
Stay Informed & Prepared
With Tropical Cyclone Alfred rapidly approaching, we urge businesses, insurers, and emergency responders to stay vigilant and ensure their contingency plans are in place. We will continue to provide real-time updates and post-event analysis to help our customers navigate the challenges posed by this dangerous system.